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My take on the Coronavirus-19 Outbreak
The following represent MY BELIEFS, albeit as a board-certified (and re-certified x 4) family physician with over 30 years experience, about the novel Coronavirus and Covid-19 disease, based upon basic principles of epidemiology and currently available information. First: I believe that Cov-19 is ALREADY PRESENT in the community. There is currently no way to determine its true prevalance, partially due to inadequate testing, but also because of the nature of the virus (variable disease severity ranging from inapparent infection to fatal disease, and high level of contagion.) What this means is that since anyone could be in...
Source: Musings of a Dinosaur - March 7, 2020 Category: Primary Care Authors: notdeaddinosaur Tags: Medical Source Type: blogs
COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates
Alan Reynolds“Death Toll Hits 9 as Outbreak Spreads, ” was the scaryWall Street Journalheadline in print before it was toned downonline. COVID-19 deaths at a nursing home and hospital in Washington state were unrelated to the virusspreading“across the U.S.” The facts tell us much more about the exceptionally high risks of fatal infection from COVID-19 (or pneumonia or flu) among elderly people living close together in nursing homes or hospitals, many of them already sick.The ongoing COPD-19 outbreak in Kirkland Washington at the Life Care nursing home and Evergreen hospital represents high ‐risk...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - March 4, 2020 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
The Misleading Arithmetic of COVID-19 Death Rates
Alan ReynoldsAssuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease (the death rate) must surely have beenmuch lower than the 2 –3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported.The triangle graph, from a February 10 study fromImperial College London, shows that most people infected by COVID-19 are never counted as being infected. That is because, the Imperial College study explains, “the bottom of the pyramid represents the likely larges...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - March 2, 2020 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
COVID-19: What is the Denominator
Since the 1st cases of infection by SARS-CoV-2 were reported in China, we have all been confronted by death and case-fatality statistics, which are both misleading and inaccurate. As of this morning, 2837 from a total of 83 774 reported cases of COVID-19 were fatal. Public Health professionals, the lay public, and politicians will conclude that this disease carries a “mortality rate” of 3.4%. Relatively few realize that “only” 1.4% of patients treated outside of Mainland China have died of COVID-19: 0.7% of passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 0.5% of patients in South Korea, etc.
One exp...
Source: GIDEON blog - February 29, 2020 Category: Databases & Libraries Authors: Dr. Stephen Berger Tags: Epidemiology ProMED Source Type: blogs
Less ‐Costly Ways to Reduce the Harm of COVID-19 Without Travel‐and‐Immigration‐Bans
ConclusionA mix of the policy options above, from Pigovian taxes and subsidies to small changes in property rights as well as reducing ignorance and other regulatory changes at airports, could have a large effect in reducing the spread of COVID-19 at a very low cost. Extreme options like travel ‐and‐immigration‐bans might be appropriate if the expected cost of COVID-19 climbs beyond a certain point, but less ‐costly policies should be tried first. In other words, let’s have TSA agents squirt hand sanitizer into the hands of all travelers before closing the airports.
Source: Cato-at-liberty - February 28, 2020 Category: American Health Authors: Alex Nowrasteh Source Type: blogs
As coronavirus spreads, many questions and some answers
The rapid spread of the coronavirus now called COVID-19 has sparked alarm worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a global health emergency, and many countries are grappling with a rise in confirmed cases. In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is advising people to be prepared for disruptions to daily life that will be necessary if the coronavirus spreads within communities.
Below, we’re responding to a number of questions about COVID-19 raised by Harvard Health Blog readers. We hope to add further questions and update answers as reliable information becomes available.
Does t...
Source: Harvard Health Blog - February 27, 2020 Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Todd Ellerin, MD Tags: Children's Health Cold and Flu Infectious diseases Men's Health Women's Health Source Type: blogs
Reasons to chill and reasons not to chill
Okay, I ' m not an epidemiologist or a virologist. But I do know something about those subjects, I ' m a public health professor, and I am an expert in clinical communication and risk communication. So I ' m going to offer some observations that I hope will help people keep this public health scare in proper perspective and maybe be of practical use.There are two important parameters we need to understand the risk caused by any communicable disease. I ' m going to broadly say transmissibility, and the probability that exposure will lead to serious disease.We often see transmissibility represented as a single number, called...
Source: Stayin' Alive - February 26, 2020 Category: American Health Source Type: blogs
Pandemic Ethics – Resources 2020
With all the concern at present about the coronavirus outbreak in China (and the rest of the world), we will host a special series on the blog relating to ethical issues during pandemics. We last ran a series on this topic in 2009 during the Swine flu outbreak. In this blog, I’ll collect together blogs […]
Source: blog.bioethics.net - February 25, 2020 Category: Medical Ethics Authors: Dominic Wilkinson Tags: Health Care Pandemic Ethics syndicated Source Type: blogs
Doctor Doom prognosticates again
Nouriel Rubini is the economist nicknamed " Dr. Doom " because he correctly predicted the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the resulting Great Recession.Now he ' s at it again. This time, however, it ' s not just one thing. He ' s seeing geopolitical stresses, notably the quadruple confrontations of the U.S. with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. He ' s seeing the coronavirus. He ' s seeing natural disasters associated with climate change. I don ' t know what he ' s on about with the abnormal seismic activity and undersea volcanoes, but he ' s got enough to legitimately worry about.The situation regarding coronavirus is b...
Source: Stayin' Alive - February 23, 2020 Category: American Health Source Type: blogs
Improved PCR Flu Diagnostic for Pandemic Response: Interview with Chris Hole of TTP
TTP, a technology company based in Melbourn, UK, is developing a handheld PCR (polymerase chain reaction) diagnostic device that can rapidly detect influenza viruses, and one day other viruses, in samples of nasal mucus. The company claims that the s...
Source: Medgadget - February 20, 2020 Category: Medical Devices Authors: Conn Hastings Tags: Diagnostics Exclusive Public Health Source Type: blogs
Podcast: Managing Coronavirus Outbreak Anxiety
Does the new coronavirus from China make you a little anxious? How concerned should we be? Is it a real threat or mostly hype? In today’s podcast, Dr. John Grohol, founder and editor-in-chief of PsychCentral.com, explains what the coronavirus is, how it compares to the flu and why it seems to have hit the panic button in a lot of people. He offers tips to avoid getting sick in general, and importantly, gives advice on how to keep our anxiety levels in check when it comes to new disease outbreaks, especially in how we seek information from the media.
If you’d like to learn more about the coronavirus and how to deal wi...
Source: World of Psychology - February 13, 2020 Category: Psychiatry & Psychology Authors: The Psych Central Podcast Tags: Anxiety and Panic Disorders General Health-related Interview Podcast The Psych Central Show Source Type: blogs
The real cost, and longer term implications, of the Wuhan coronavirus
It ' s too soon to know for sure how the tale of the novel coronavirus will play out,but at this point we have a pretty good idea. A stipulation in both of the scenarios at the linked essay is that yeah, it gets loose into the wild and eventually can show up anywhere in the world. I think that ' s pretty much definitely going to happen if it hasn ' t already.Scenario number 1, and most likely, in my view, it will just be one more virus that causes what amounts to a common cold and in a few people who are otherwise debilitated goes on to be complicated by pneumonia. In that case, for a year or two it will circulate as a nov...
Source: Stayin' Alive - February 5, 2020 Category: American Health Source Type: blogs
Coronavirus: What parents should know and do
As a parent, you can’t help but worry about the safety of your children. So it’s natural that as stories about the novel coronavirus that started in China flood the news, parents worry about whether their children could be at risk.
We are still learning about this new virus; there is much we do not know yet about how it spreads, how serious it can be, or how to treat it. The fact that so much is unknown is a big part of what makes it frightening. But there are things we do know — about this virus and other similar viruses — that can help us keep our children safe and well.
All of the advice below assumes that you a...
Source: Harvard Health Blog - February 5, 2020 Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Claire McCarthy, MD Tags: Adolescent health Children's Health Infectious diseases Parenting Source Type: blogs
Be careful where you get your news about coronavirus
News about a deadly virus that appeared in Wuhan, China in December (now called 2019 novel coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV) is everywhere lately. And as the number of cases rises, it’s understandable if you’re wondering how likely it is that you or a loved one will become ill. And quite likely, you’re also wondering how to prevent this.
So, where should you turn for the latest information on a rapidly changing situation? It’s hard to beat the convenience of the internet, and we know there’s a lot of useful and reliable information online. But there’s also a lot of misinformation. The trick is to figure out which is w...
Source: Harvard Health Blog - February 1, 2020 Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Robert H. Shmerling, MD Tags: Cold and Flu Emergency Planning Health Infectious diseases Travel health Source Type: blogs
Coronavirus Anxiety: 4 Ways to Cope with Fear
As the coronavirus spreads, more and more people are becoming anxious about what it means in their life. After all, entire cities have been quarantined in China. Travel restrictions have been put in place throughout the world.
It’s perfectly normal to feel anxiety about this emerging health crisis. The coronavirus can be a deadly disease, but we also know that it’s most likely to be deadly in people who already have a weakened immune system.
Here’s how to cope with the anxiety and fear surrounding the coronavirus outbreak.
1. Don’t Inflate the Risk
Our brains are used to taking something that is ma...
Source: World of Psychology - January 31, 2020 Category: Psychiatry & Psychology Authors: John M. Grohol, Psy.D. Tags: General Health-related Psychology Self-Help Stress anxious about virus coronavirus virus outbreak Source Type: blogs
