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The Misleading Arithmetic of COVID-19 Death Rates
Alan ReynoldsAssuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease (the death rate) must surely have beenmuch lower than the 2 –3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported.The triangle graph, from a February 10 study fromImperial College London, shows that most people infected by COVID-19 are never counted as being infected. That is because, the Imperial College study explains, “the bottom of the pyramid represents the likely larges...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - March 2, 2020 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates
Alan Reynolds“Death Toll Hits 9 as Outbreak Spreads, ” was the scaryWall Street Journalheadline in print before it was toned downonline. COVID-19 deaths at a nursing home and hospital in Washington state were unrelated to the virusspreading“across the U.S.” The facts tell us much more about the exceptionally high risks of fatal infection from COVID-19 (or pneumonia or flu) among elderly people living close together in nursing homes or hospitals, many of them already sick.The ongoing COPD-19 outbreak in Kirkland Washington at the Life Care nursing home and Evergreen hospital represents high ‐risk...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - March 4, 2020 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
Did Mitigation Save Two Million Lives?
Alan ReynoldsIn the April 16 White House briefing, President Trump again said, as he often has before, that “models predicted between 1.5 and 2.2 million deaths” if we had not endured the various economic shutdowns imposed by the Governors of 42 States. The severity and breadth of those statewide shutdowns was initially encouraged, and is now justified, by just one dramatic statistic. That number was the 2.2 million U.S. deaths supposedly at risk from COVID-19.The famed 2.2 million estimate first reached viral status in the March 31 White House briefing by Doctors Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx. They displayed a grap...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - April 17, 2020 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
How One Model Simulated 2.2 Million U.S. Deaths from COVID-19
Alan ReynoldsWhen it came to dealing with an unexpected surge in infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 (the virus causing COVID-19 symptoms), federal and state policymakers understandably sought guidance from competing epidemiological computer models. On March 16, a 20-page report from Neil Ferguson ' s team at Imperial College London quickly gathered enormous attention by producing enormous death estimates. Dr. Ferguson had previously publicized almost equallysensational death estimates from mad cow disease, bird flu and swine flu.The New York Times quickly ran the hot news about this new COVID-19 estimate:The report, whi...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - April 21, 2020 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
COVID-19 Podcast: Mom Driven, Doctor Aligned & HeyMama Join Forces
Transcript
[00:00:00] Agatha: Hi! It’s Agatha Luczo. Welcome to “Mom Driven, Dr. Aligned”. Dr. Alan Greene and I were just on with the HeyMama Community doing a Q&A about COVID-19. Dr. Greene gave us such amazing advice and tips about how to deal with immunity health and how to take care of ourselves during this time. And some advice I haven’t heard anywhere else. I’m excited to bring all of the conversation to our family and friends.
[00:00:36] Dr. Greene: Wonderful to get to be with the HeyMama Community. I’ve gotten a bunch of questions already ...
Source: Conversations with Dr Greene - April 16, 2020 Category: Child Development Authors: Alan Greene MD Tags: Dr. Greene's Blog Uncategorized COVID COVID-19 Parenting Source Type: blogs
Blaming U.S. Passenger Vehicles for Climate Change Is Ignorant but Lucrative
Alan ReynoldsA CNN report says, “Making American cars greener is a key component of Biden’s economic and climate agendas… But the transition will be difficult;passenger vehicles contribute 29% of total US greenhouse gas emissions, and EVs and plug ‐in hybrids combined only account for around 2% of the US auto sales, according to a UAW analysis.”Similar claims – that “passenger vehicles contribute 29% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions” – have been echoed repeatedly for a decade but are totally false. Theentire transportation sector accounts for 29% of U.S. greenhouse gases, according to the Ener...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - September 10, 2021 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
The Unintelligible Psaki ‐Biden Theory of Oil Prices
Alan ReynoldsJust as Congress was poised to ban imports of Russian oil, President Biden got the jump on them with an executive order. Despite the delay, it was the right thing to do as a national expression of moral outrage over Russian military atrocities.The White House repeatedly explained its two ‐week inaction by suggesting that U.S. gasoline prices depend on how much oil we buy from this one minor source of imports.In late FebruaryReuters reported, “As the White House developed the sanctions package… [officials] were concerned about the possible impacts of a loss of Russian oil supply at a time of rising...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - March 9, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
The Fed ’s Unplanned Soft Landing of 2018–19
Alan ReynoldsFederal Reserve officials spentmonths talking ‐up their visions of a linear upward path for the overnight federal funds rate on bank reserves, but with few clues about when the increase might stop or why.But markets do not wait for the Fed to act. The policy ‐making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had done nothing until now except to raise the fed funds rate a quarter point in March. Yet they nonetheless managed to double mortgage interest rates and crash the value of bonds and stocks in retirement accounts by simply talking increasingly bold ly about what FOMC members “project” might happ...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - May 4, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
U.S. Gasoline Prices Depend on Global Oil Markets — Not “Independence”
Alan ReynoldsI still have a 1979 bookmark that says, “INFLATION IS A PAIN IN THE GAS.”Funny but wrong. U.S. gasoline prices follow gyrations in world oil markets, which depend on global (not domestic) supply and demand.What actually happened in 1978 –80, an important German study from Bruegel reminds us, was the Iranian revolution and the Iran ‐Iraq War: “The 1978 Iranian revolution decreased global supply by 4 percent and led to a price increase of 57 percent. The 1980 Iran‐Iraq war decreased global supply by 4 percent and led to a price increase of 45 percent.”What happened to world oil market...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - May 10, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
Fear of a Gold Planet
Proposed nominees Stephen Moore and Herman Cain having dropped out of contention, discussion continues over the Trump administration ’s possible next nomination to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. The views of the latest candidate under consideration by the administration, Judy Shelton, have revived a question that commentators raised earlier about Moore and Cain: Should favoring some kind of gold standard disqualify a nominee from occupying one of seven seats on the Board? Here let me disclose that I worked with Judy Shelton on the Atlas Economic Research Foundation’s Sound Money Project. But the argument t...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - June 4, 2019 Category: American Health Authors: Lawrence H. White Source Type: blogs
The Macro View – Health, Economics, and Politics and the Big Picture. What I Am Watching Here And Abroad.
June 23, 2022 Edition ----- The news globally continues to get worse with rising fears of inflation fuelled recessions seemingly becoming more likely in the US, UK and the EU. Hard to know but Aus does not seem to be in much better shape. Elsewhere China is still fisting the COVID and finding it pretty hard to get rid of while slowing its economy in the battle. In OZ it is hard to avoid the feeling that things are pretty rocky with a real energy crisis, share market near collapse, rising inflation, huge debt, fiscal strains and geopolitical stresses and no obvious plan to get things back on the rails any time soon! I bet A...
Source: Australian Health Information Technology - June 23, 2022 Category: Information Technology Authors: Dr David G More MB PhD Source Type: blogs
The Macro View – Health, Financial And Political News Relevant To E-Health And The Health Sector In General.
October 18, 2018 Edition.The big news is the rather large share market crash in the US with Trump saying his economic plans were great – and that the US Fed Reserve was the problem.Alan Kohler explained it best:There were three triggers for this week’s sell-off:US interest ratesChina/US cold warRising oil pricesI reckon No 2 is the biggie and still underestimated grossly. There is a real war brewing I fear. Read about it here:h ttps://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/alan-kohler/us-declares-cold-war-on-china/news-story/a506fe2625f63ea470c8c6c880eff9dfOf course Australia was also caught up in the Global sell do...
Source: Australian Health Information Technology - October 18, 2018 Category: Information Technology Authors: Dr David G More MB PhD Source Type: blogs
The Macro View – Health, Economics, and Politics and the Big Picture. What I Am Watching Here And Abroad.
June 09, 2022 Edition-----The Russian war on Ukraine is now well over 100 days old. The destruction and deaths are just awful and the world is being seriously re-shaped. Where this ends is unknowable but unlikely to be good.In the US we are seeing almost daily mass shootings and no-one seems to know what to do. Just pathetic.In the UK the hangover is slowly lifting after the 4 day royal celebration.In OZ we are having an energy crisis which we hope we will find solutions for soon!-----Major Issues.------https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/australias-labor-government-faces-a-whole-new-economic-ball-game/news...
Source: Australian Health Information Technology - June 9, 2022 Category: Information Technology Authors: Dr David G More MB PhD Source Type: blogs
