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Imaginary Squabbles Part 5: Comparing Krugman’s 2005 Housing Bubble Forecasts to Mine
Alan Reynolds New York Times columnist Paul Krugman has recycled another phony argument about something I wrote many years ago.  He begins by citing Matt O’Brien who found that Fed governor Janet Yellen in October 2005 was predicting there would be no great impact on the economy “were the house-price bubble to deflate.” O’Brien concludes that, “Back in 2005, she didn’t appreciate how much shadow banks relied on AAA-rated mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) as collateral to fund their day-to-day operations—or how much even this supposedly high-quality collateral could go bust if housing did....
Source: Cato-at-liberty - August 9, 2013 Category: Health Medicine and Bioethics Commentators Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs

The Window of Opportunity for Teaching Your Kids Great Eating Habits
What does mother goose have to do with getting kids to eat right? Researcher Konrad Lorentz showed that by replacing a mother goose with something else as the first thing a baby goose encountered, he could alter the behavior of the baby goose to view that thing (even a toy train!!) as ‘mama’. This phenomenon is referred to as “imprinting,” and it works just as well for “what’s for dinner?” as it does for “who’s mama?” But there’s a catch – it only works for a short while. If you want your children to make healthy food choices almost instinctually, you ...
Source: Conversations with Dr Greene - July 17, 2013 Category: Pediatricians Authors: Dr. Alan Greene Tags: Dr. Greene's Blog Infant Infant & Baby Feeding Infant Feeding Newborn Newborn Development Top Infant Top Infant Nutrition Top Newborn Source Type: blogs

An All-in-One, Life-Prolonging Gift for Your Child
Sometimes in the hubbub of today, we miss simple things that can have a lasting impact. This is true for parents and for doctors. As part of my ongoing board certification as a pediatrician, I was thrilled recently to see an important nutrition question: “A 5-year-old boy is brought to the physician for a health care supervision visit. The parents have no particular concerns. Which of the following interventions would be most likely to lead to a predicted decrease in mortality in a population of healthy 5-year-old children?” Decreased potassium intake Decreased sodium intake Increased caffeine intake Increased fluor...
Source: Conversations with Dr Greene - March 18, 2013 Category: Pediatricians Authors: Dr. Alan Greene Tags: Dr. Greene's Blog Family Nutrition Top Blog Source Type: blogs

The Reynolds Model of Stock Prices
Alan Reynolds Mark Hulbert’s latest Wall Street Journal column criticizes the so-called Fed Model, which holds that P/E ratios should rise as interest rates decline, and vice versa. The strategy got its name in 1997, following a reference in a Federal Reserve report to the tendency of the S&P 500’s earnings yield—the inverse of its P/E ratio—to rise and fall with long-term interest rates.  During the 15 years before the Fed made that observation, the U.S. stock market’s P/E ratio did indeed tend to be higher when interest rates were low, and vice versa, Mr. [Javier] Estrada concedes. But, he poi...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - September 14, 2013 Category: Health Medicine and Bioethics Commentators Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs

Reform The Doctor Recertification Process To Create A Better Health Care System
Editor's note: Peter Orszag coauthored this post with Alan Muney. There’s a lot of talk about creating a better health care delivery system based on value, not volume. Much of the focus is on insurers rewarding doctors financially for improving patients’ health in a cost-effective way. But there’s more to creating a sustainable model for health care that improves quality and lowers costs, and it’s something we can start right now to see results within the next decade: reform the recertification process for doctors. Currently, doctors are recertified based exclusively on their book knowledge. Wouldn’t it be bett...
Source: Health Affairs Blog - September 17, 2013 Category: Health Medicine and Bioethics Commentators Authors: Alan Muney Tags: All Categories Effectiveness Health IT Physicians Policy Quality Workforce Source Type: blogs

Article: Brains on Trial with Alan Alda
Brains on Trial with Alan Aldahttp://www.pbs.org/program/brains-trial/Sent via Flipboard
Source: Intelligent Insights on Intelligence Theories and Tests (aka IQ's Corner) - September 18, 2013 Category: Neurologists Source Type: blogs

Delaying the Individual Mandate Will Delay Political Backlash until after the Election
Alan Reynolds Republican Senators Ted Cruz (TX) and Mike Lee (UT) and a few others have proposed that all Obamacare funding be cut off by a legislative “rider,” ostensibly forbidding funding of the 2010 law. They argued that public opinion polls trump mere laws enacted by Congress and vetted by the Supreme Court–an idea that sounds more like populism than conservatism. Even if such “defunding” could have magically attracted the 67 Senate votes needed to override a veto, it would not have undone the mandate to buy insurance, premium subsidies through refundable tax credits, planned cuts in payments to Me...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - September 27, 2013 Category: Health Medicine and Bioethics Commentators Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs

The Stock Market’s Embarrassing Fall after the Fed Reneged on the Taper
Alan Reynolds Unlike nearly everyone else, I have argued that the Fed’s latest round of “quantitative easing” is not why stock prices went up until recently, and that “tapering” Fed bond purchases would have had only a negligible effect on long-term interest rates.    This was a testable hypothesis. If I was wrong, the Fed’s unexpected decision to back away from its previously-expected tapering of bond purchases would have been greeted by a significant, sustained rally in stock and bond prices. That didn’t happen. Instead, stocks fell for at least five days in a row and bond yields barely budged un...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - September 26, 2013 Category: Health Medicine and Bioethics Commentators Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs

Is There a Right Way to Feed a Baby?
This morning I opened “The Four Month Visit” email sitting in my mailbox from my pediatrician’s practice. Under the topics for the approaching visit is “solid foods.” The blurb reads “Solid food: Since Brandon looks hungrily at your food and tries to grab it, how about starting him on a little solid food? Don’t waste your time with cereals, since they offer little added nutritional value. Read more about when, how and why to start your child on solid foods.” Don’t waste my time with cereals? I spoke with some friends whose doctors told them to start with rice cereal. My mother claims my preem...
Source: World of Psychology - October 13, 2013 Category: Psychiatrists and Psychologists Authors: Jill Ceder, MSW, JD Tags: Children and Teens Disorders Eating Disorders Family General Habits Health-related Parenting Research Alan Greene Breakfast cereal Childhood Obesity food little solid food Nutrition Nutritionist Rice rice cereal starter Source Type: blogs

Lindbeck’s Law: The Self-Destructive Nature of Expanding Government Benefits
Alan Reynolds Relevant foresight from Swedish economist Assar Lindbeck, “Hazardous Welfare State Dynamics,” American Economic Review, May 1995: The basic dilemma of the welfare state …  is that the more generous the benefits, the greater will be not only the tax distortions but also, because of moral hazard and benefit cheating, the number of beneficiaries. This is a field where Say’s Law certainly holds in the long run: the supply of benefits creates its own demand… . Serious benefit-dependency, or ‘learned helplessness’, may … emerge only in a long-run perspective. Possible examples ...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - November 3, 2013 Category: Health Medicine and Bioethics Commentators Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs

Is ADHD Overdiagnosed? Yes & No
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction: Correction: April 2, 2013 A headline on Monday about the marked rise in diagnoses of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, described incorrectly the disorder that saw the increase. It is A.D.H.D. — not hyperactivity, which is present in only a portion of A.D.H.D. cases. The article also misidentified the organization that plans to change the definition of A.D.H.D. to allow more people to receive the diagnosis and treatment. It is the American Psychiatric Association, not the Am...
Source: World of Psychology - November 21, 2013 Category: Psychiatrists and Psychologists Authors: John M. Grohol, Psy.D. Tags: ADHD and ADD Children and Teens Disorders General Mental Health and Wellness Minding the Media Parenting Policy and Advocacy Treatment Alan Schwarz American Psychiatric Association attention Attention Deficit Attention Deficit Hy Source Type: blogs

Tax Reform Error #1: Confusing Tax Expenditures with Revenues
Alan Reynolds House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp has released a complex 182-page “discussion draft” called The Tax Reform Act of 2014. Rather get bogged down in details, I will take this opportunity to review several fundamental errors that repeatedly plagued most past and present efforts to reform the federal income tax, including the Camp proposal. One of the most pernicious errors among would-be tax reformers is to assume that, as the Tax Policy Center asserts, “tax expenditures are revenue losses” attributable to various “loopholes.” On the contrary, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) cle...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - March 7, 2014 Category: Health Medicine and Bioethics Commentators Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs

Another Defective IMF study on Inequality and Redistribution
Alan Reynolds “IMF Warns on the Dangers of Inequality,” screams the headline of a story by Ian Talley in the Wall Street Journal. The IMF – which Talley dubs “the world’s top economic institution”– is said to be “warning that rising income inequality is weighing on global economic growth and fueling political instability.”  This has been a familiar chorus from the White House/IMF songbook since late 2011, when President Obama’s Special Assistant David Lipton became Deputy Managing Director of the IMF.  It echoes a December 2012 New York Times piece, “Income Inequality May Take Toll on G...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - March 15, 2014 Category: Health Medicine and Bioethics Commentators Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs

Why Piketty Was Mistaken for Endorsing the Zucman & Saez Slide Show
Alan Reynolds I will have more to say about this fairly soon, but this might serve as a preview. Thomas Piketty is now advising innocent readers of his book to (1) not demand a refund or dump the book used on Amazon, and (2) ignore his own flawed estimates of top 1% U.S. wealth shares and instead utilize a PowerPoint by Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez.  Zucman and Saez use capital income reported on individual tax returns (dividends, interest, rent and capital gains) to infer ownership of capital assets, and not just greater realization of gains or portfolio shifts from tax-exempt bonds to dividend-paying stock. Tha...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - June 23, 2014 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs

TWiV 300: So happy together
Recording together for the first time, the hosts of the science show This Week in Virology celebrate their 300th recording at the American Society for Microbiology headquarters in Washington, DC, where Vincent  speaks with Dickson, Alan, Rich, and Kathy about their careers in science. You can find TWiV #300 at www.twiv.tv.
Source: virology blog - August 31, 2014 Category: Virology Authors: Vincent Racaniello Tags: This Week in Virology Alan Dove dickson despommier ebola virus Kathy Spindler podcast research Rich Condit science career TWiV viral Source Type: blogs