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An Investor ’s Life Was More Tranquil When Central Bankers Gave Fewer Speeches
Alan ReynoldsAn exchange betweenJohn Maynard Keynes and Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir Ernest Harvey, December 5, 1929:KEYNES:Arising from Professor Gregory ’s questions, is it a practice of the Bank of England never to explain what its policy is?HARVEY:Well, I think it has been our practice to leave our actions to explain our policy.KEYNES:Or the reasons for its policy?HARVEY:It is a dangerous thing to start to give reasons.KEYNES:Or to defend itself against criticism?HARVEY:As regards criticism, I am afraid, though the Committee may not all agree, we do not admit there is a need for defens...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - May 20, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
The Fed Minutes Add New Humility and Flexibility
Alan ReynoldsTheMay 3 –4 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee earned a welcome relief rally from stock and bond investors, which includes nearly everyone with an IRA or 401(k) retirement account. Why? In my judgement it was because FOMC participants sounded more pragmatic and humbler about predicting and managing the unknowable future. Specifically, the FOMC no longer seemed so rigidly committed to a fixed schedule of routine half ‐point or larger increases in the federal funds rate from June through December. In place of the mid‐March introduction of annual central planning, the Minutes now s...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - May 27, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
Escalating Oil Prices and Fed Funds Rates Preceded Every Recession Since 1957
Alan ReynoldsIn 1997, Former Federal Reserve ChairmanBen Bernanke, while still an academic, wrote a famous historical study for the Brookings Institution: “Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks” with Mark Gertler and Mark Watson.It began by documenting that “essentially all the U.S. recessions of the past thirty years have been preceded by both oil price increases and a tightening of monetary policy. ” So here we are again tightening monetary policy at a time of unaffordable oil price increases.In fact, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell argues the Fed must be more aggressive about r...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - June 10, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
A Brief History of Hard and Soft Landings
Alan ReynoldsThis year marks the thirteenth time since 1954 that the Federal Reserve Board ’s policy‐making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began gradually ratcheting up the federal funds rate on bank reserves in a series of recurring steps. Eventually, however, the rate increases always stopped and the FOMC began bringing the “fed funds rate” back down.The inevitable series of interest rate reductions most often did not begin until recession had already begun, or too shortly before, so those monetary policy experiments are now looked back on as “hard landings.”Whenever the rate increases stopped in ti...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - June 14, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
Journalistic Misunderstandings About the PPI
Alan ReynoldsAccording to CNN, “The Producer Price Index, which measureswholesale prices before goods and services reach consumers, rose 10.8% in May compared to where it stood a year ago. ”The PPI is not in any sense a measure of“wholesale” prices and has not been called that since 1978 (it was much narrower and simpler in the old days).An AP headline declares, “US Producer Prices Soar 10.8% in May as Energy Costs Spike.” No, the PPI isnot a measure of business costs for energy or anything else. The price businesses receive for their sales may at times be a cost for other U.S. business...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - June 14, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
The Reagan ‐Volcker Years in Retrospect
Alan ReynoldsRichard Vigilante, an old friend from the Reagan years, reminds us of another old friend John Rutledge who worked with Larry Kudlow, Dave Stockman and me onthe 1981 presidential transition team. I asked Stockman to invite Rutledge because I admired his writings about rational expectations and markets but also because he was a wizard with a rare DOS laptop (I did not buy a PC until 1982).Later that year, December 14, Rutledge wrote “Why Interest Rates Will Fall in 1982” forThe Wall Street Journal. That is the article Vigilante recalls as “the most prescient prediction by an economist that I have ev...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - June 17, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
Countries With Higher Interest Rates Have Higher Inflation
Alan ReynoldsA recent headline exclaimed: “Central Banks Should Raise Rates Sharply or Risk High‐Inflation Era,BIS Warns. ” The Bank for International Settlements is owned by 61 central banks, so they should know better than to equate higher interest rates with lower inflation.Countries with the lowestcentral bank interest rates (below zero) include Switzerland and Japan, according tothe BIS.Those with the highest policy rates include Argentina and Turkey, with rates of 49% and 14% respectively.Should we conclude that Argentina and Turkey are valiantly fighting inflation with high interest rates while Switzerland ...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - July 1, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
Should “Core Inflation” Include Jet Fuel?
Alan ReynoldsUnsurprisingly, airline fares generally rise and fall with jet fuel prices which, in turn, mirror global crude oil prices. Yet airline fares are part of the “core” Consumer Price Index (CPI), which supposedly excludes food and energy.Futures prices for crude oil and grain have soared since last December when Russia began to amass troops around Ukraine. That rise in global commodity prices, in turn, has greatly increased costs of producing and distributing everything from plastics to fertilizer and meat. And, of course, so ‐called “core” transportation services, such as airfares.In the CPI, airline...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - July 13, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
The Bond Market Can “Fight the Fed” (And Sometimes Win)
Alan ReynoldsA favoriteWall Street Journal columnist,James Mackintosh, quotes an economist saying that because the price ‐earnings ratio for stocks rises when bond yields fall, “The most capitalist valuation metric in the world, the P/E of the S&P 500, is now just completely dominated by monetary policy. ”That would make sense if increases in the Fed ’s policy rates were matched by increases in 10‐year bond yields. On the contrary, bond yields have instead fallen from 3.49% on June 14 when the fed funds rate was 0.33 to 2.78% on August 10 when the funds rate has risen to 2.32%.The red line in the graph ...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - August 12, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
KeyCare Expands Nation ’s Only Virtual-First Care Platform Built with Epic via $24M Series A Investment
New virtual care platform helps health systems widen their own digital front doors.
KeyCare, Inc., the nation’s only virtual-first care platform built with Epic, today announced the closing of $24 million in series A funding backed by 8VC, LRV Health, Bold Capital, and Spectrum Health Ventures.
KeyCare offers health systems the ability to easily augment their care teams, optimize capacity, and widen their digital front doors by partnering with a nationwide network of virtual care groups. Patients can schedule appointments with a variety of Virtualists via their own health system’s MyChart portal or call center....
Source: EMR and HIPAA - August 17, 2022 Category: Information Technology Authors: Healthcare IT News Tags: Health IT Company Healthcare IT Telemedicine and Remote Monitoring 8VC Alan Hutchison Bold Capital Epic Epic APIs Epic EHR Health IT Funding Health IT Fundings Health IT Investment KeyCare LRV Health Lyle Berkowitz Mandy Reed Source Type: blogs
Room for Innovation in Digital Transformation
Digital Transformation is a huge buzz word in the world of healthcare at the moment. With the pandemic, we had to scramble to find a digital way to do many things in order to stay safe. So in a lot of ways, healthcare has been skyrocketed into the future, but there is still room for improvement. For some organizations, being rushed to find a digital solution has left certain areas unsupported. This rush also means that not all organizations have adopted the same practices that patients have grown to love and are now trying to catch up. So while we have made huge progress in the world of digital transformation, there is sti...
Source: EMR and HIPAA - December 7, 2022 Category: Information Technology Authors: John Lynn Tags: C-Suite Leadership Healthcare IT IT Infrastructure and Dev Ops 4D Path ABOUT Healthcare Alan Stein Amanda Bury Andrew Rickman Angie Franks Bamboo Health Brandon Clark Catalyst Health Group Chris Evanguelidi CloudWave Digital In Source Type: blogs
Why is the Fed Further Inverting the Yield Curve?
Alan ReynoldsThe yield on 10 ‐year Treasury bonds fell below 3.5% recently—down from 4.25% on October 24 before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last raised the top fed funds rate to 4%. The 10‐year bond yield has been lower than the interest rate on 3‑month Treasury bills for well over a month, leaving t he spread between short and long rates the widest in decades.If the FOMC paused raising rates at the December 12 –13 meeting, the yield curve is already inverted enough to virtually guarantee recession next year, according toArturo Estrella, a renowned veteran researcher from the New York Fed. Y...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - December 9, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
History Cautions Against Loosening Fed Policy Too Late
Alan ReynoldsIn October I wrote, “CPI Less Rent Was Zero for 3 Months; CPI Rent Is Wrong.”Nobody appeared to find that interesting.Now, CPI less rent has shown zero inflation for5 months.How long can zero remain uninteresting?Some prices went up over the past five months and others went down, but the weightedaverage increase for everything in the average consumer ’s shopping basket was nil once we properly exclude disingenuous and outdated estimates of shelter inflation.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Chairman Powell have acknowledged that Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys of rent and owner ‐...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - December 13, 2022 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
Fed Chair Powell ’s Story about Service Price Inflation Is Untrue
Alan ReynoldsInThe Wall Street Journal’s “Year ‐End Review& Outlook,” Sam Goldfarb deftly summarized a recent shift in the Federal Reserve’s focus away from PCE inflation —which slowed to a 2.4% rate from July to November— to a diverse hodgepodge of services prices.“In recent remarks,Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized that, even in recent months, there has been only a modest slowdown in price increases for core services outside of housing. That is an area of the economy seen as most sensitive to labor costs, which have shown few signs of decelerating.”Although Mr. Powell ’s latest s...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - January 3, 2023 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
Inflation Fell to 1.9% in the Second Half of 2022 from 10.7% in the First
Alan ReynoldsIn the first half of 2022, January to June, CPI inflation averaged 0.89% a month (nearly 1%). In the second half, the monthly changes averaged 0.16% (less than two‐tenth of one percent).Just multiply the average monthly inflation rate times twelve to see that the annual rate of inflation slowed from 10.7% in the first half to 1.9% in the second.Reducing inflation by 8.8 percentage points for half a year seems worthy of more attention. Instead, top Fed officials and uncritical journalists keep speaking and writing as though the change was barely discernable, merely a slight easing. The reason for that...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - January 19, 2023 Category: American Health Authors: Alan Reynolds Source Type: blogs
